If we equate stability with security, and security with longevity, then clearly we abide by the laws of continuity, hence providing the conceptual basis for the continuation of Serzh Sargsyan as the country’s leading political figure. We can better understand this through a more nuanced framework. Wisdom is a virtue possible only through experience; experience is a condition predicated on competence and competence is a quality innate to a refined politician. That Serzh Sargsyan is a refined politician is beyond debate. That Serzh Sargsyan is competent is a foregone conclusion. That Serzh Sargsyan is extraordinarily experienced cannot merit disagreement. And that Serzh Sargsyan, a consummate student of strategy, exudes wisdom, is only evident by merely observing his accomplishments. A selfless public servant who has devoted his life to the advancement and betterment of the Armenian nation, Serzh Sargsyan assumed the Presidency in 2008, amid turmoil and uncertainty, only to steer the nation toward development, growth, and security.
During President Sargsyan’s tenure, Armenia underwent extraordinary development in three important spheres. First, militarily, the armed forces of the Republic not only transitioned from a traditional military to a more mobile modern fighting force, but also attained some of the most advanced weaponry for the field of battle. Collectively, Armenia has become the most powerful military force in the Caucasus, whether in fighting spirit, quality of soldiers, strategic advantage, or military leaderships. Second, economically, Armenia’s economy diversified exponentially under President Sargsyan’s tenure, as Armenia transitioned into a service sector economy under the three pillars of banking, tourism, and technology. Coupled with the impressive foreign investments into Armenia’s economy, the unequivocal success of the Sargsyan Administration cannot merit criticism. And thirdly, the extraordinary advancement in culture; that is, the immersion of the Armenian homeland with its vast Diaspora, with President Sargsyan as the architect of this bridge that binds the Armenian culture the world throughout. Forthwith, when considering the prolific achievements of President Sargsyan, and his oeuvre of refinement, competence, experience, and wisdom, there remains no debate that he is the natural and most qualified choice to continue steering our nation toward progress as its Prime Minister.
Why does this sound like the commentary of a prolific sycophant? Oh, I was merely imitating Eduard Sharmazanov, Armen Ashotyan, Taron Margaryan, Davit Harutunyan, Ara Babloyan, to say the least, and the whole cadre of Republican (and Dashnak) court jesters that shamelessly worship at the altar of an empty throne. But wait, why is the throne empty? Well, that is because the esteemed Prime Minister does not have the courage to sit on it: so he is simply hiding behind it. To deny his endeavor of clinging to a throne, Sargsyan orchestrated an elaborate facade of institutional changes, to only deny that which he ended up doing: clinging to power and usurping the spirit of the Republic’s Constitution. This has become the incoherence of our current political system, a structural transition from a semi-presidential republic to a parliamentarian democracy; that is, an artificial transition that has placed Armenia in a limbo, in a state of defeatist apprehension, a shallow and embarrassing political system that suffocates from self-righteousness and self-congratulation. This is, quite simply, farcical.
Addressing Sargsyan’s Achievements
As the title of this article denotes, it is incumbent to address the various achievements of Serzh Sargsyan. These achievements will be noted in four areas: the constitutional referendum, military reforms, foreign policy, and the economy.
Only in the face of crises, where obvious and embarrassing shortcomings were revealed, did the Sargsyan Administration take steps at military reforms: it basically took 8 years, a multi-pronged invasion by the enemy, and a large loss of life for Sargsyan to finally realize the need for reforms.
The general consensus maintained that the Constitutional structure of Armenia endowed far too much power upon the office of the president, and as such, to allow for a healthy and systemic dispersion of power, a parliamentary system was the most cogent alternative. Thus, under the guise of structural democratization, Sargsyan orchestrated the 2015 constitutional referendum, where which the political and governing system of the country would adopt a parliamentary structure. Innate to this discourse was the concern that presidential powers in Armenia were conducive to dictatorial tendencies, and as such, the transition to a parliamentary system would offset this concern. This narrative was embraced by Armenia’s European partners as well as much of the Western world; that is, it was embraced in theory. Sargsyan utilized this narrative for two main reasons. First, he was not able to satisfactorily find a successor, and as such, he was not willing to risk the future trajectories of political power in the hands of someone he cannot control, or at the minimum, leverage. Second, contingent on this first assessment, the success of the referendum and the transition to a parliamentary system would deliver the corridors of power unto the Republican Party, which will give Sargsyan the flexibility of either playing the puppet master, or even assuming the Prime Ministership himself. This perceived, long-term strategic maneuver would have been deemed impressive and clever if not for one simple reason: most observers and much of the opposition called Sargsyan out ahead of time and exposed his so-called “tactical cleverness.” Forthwith, one of Sargsyan’s most impressive achievements has been his shameless abuse of authority, along with the realization that he is not the clever or strategic chess-player that he fancies himself to be. When your political endgame has already been predicted by your opponents, that makes you neither strategic nor clever: it simply makes you a glorified simpleton.
If Sargsyan is extolled for anything by his admirers, his security and military credentials remain the epitome. Contextually, we may address two obvious facts. First, Sargsyan has neither military training, nor does he have the acumen of a general or of a military tactician. Second, while Sargsyan excels at administrative capabilities (specifically noting his functions as Robert Kocharyan’s underling during the Artsakh War), this in no way legitimates his claims of being a military man. Simply put, Sargsyan is a wannabe siloviki, a bureaucratic hack who excels at abusing administrative resources to advance his political self-interest. Sargsyan has no bonafides as either a military leader or a competent operative in the realm of intelligence or espionage. Consequently, he is neither general nor spymaster: he is a bureaucratic operative who rose through the corridors of power fancying himself a political animal. This is why Sargsyan remains utterly uncomfortable with institutional reforms or broad-ranging policy alterations: he is a creature of the status quo, and only budges in the face of extreme risk aversion. This is most obviously attested when observing military reforms in the armed forces; that is, the complete absence of cogent reform until the Four Day War in 2016. Thus, only in the face of crises, where obvious and embarrassing shortcomings were revealed, did the Sargsyan Administration take steps at military reforms: it basically took 8 years, a multi-pronged invasion by the enemy, and a large loss of life for Sargsyan to finally realize the need for reforms. Thus, if we are going to qualify Sargsyan’s military achievements, they rest on two factors: 1) his inability to reform the military, especially elements of corruption, that proved to have a detrimental effect upon our national security; and 2) for being the first leader since independence who happened to lose territory to the enemy, regardless of the perceived relevance of this loss.
One of the most baffling cases of governing incompetence has revolved around the making and administering of Armenia’s foreign policy. It is baffling for two important reasons. First, considering the impressive intellectual manpower that Armenia produces, there happens to be a complete lack of braintrust in Armenian foreign policy-making. With the exception of a rising cadre of American and British-educated young diplomats, who, of course, are not really taken into consideration during policy formulation, Armenia’s foreign policy establishment is comprised of Soviet-educated halfwits and pseudo-intellectuals. Unable to orchestrate strategic initiative, resource-utilization, or even a decent grand strategy, Armenia’s foreign policy has been reduced to two precepts: conformist or reactionary. This, in turn, is complemented by sheer intellectual laziness: in parts of the world where Armenians display a healthy Diaspora, much foreign policy work is farmed out to Diasporan lobbying organizations, with the Armenian embassy, in an ad-hoc and at times disjunctive fashion, coordinating policy that lacks cogency or operationalization.
For the last 10 years under Sargsyan, Armenia has not had a cogent foreign policy principle. Some have suggested it’s a “multi-vector” foreign policy, only to realize this is the plagiarizing of Russia’s post-Cold War policy.
But, what can our expectations be, when Sargsyan, for example, appoints someone like Edward Nalbandyan, a connoisseur of incompetence, as foreign minister. Or, for that matter, someone like Shavarsh Kocharyan, while a genuinely good person, but a policy ignoramus, as deputy foreign minister. Competent, energetic, highly-intelligent young diplomats are either sent out as ambassadors to relatively small, irrelevant countries, or shackled to bureaucratic responsibilities that suffocate their skills. The second baffling aspect of Armenian foreign policy is the complete lack of coherent policy principles. While suffering from endless flaws, at least Kocharyan’s foreign ministry under Vartan Oskanian had a cogent grand strategy under the “complimentarity” policy, which provided for some degree of actionable initiative. For the last 10 years under Sargsyan, Armenia has not had a cogent foreign policy principle. Some have suggested it’s a “multi-vector” foreign policy, only to realize this is the plagiarizing of Russia’s post-Cold War policy. Some have suggested “neo-complimentarity,” which, in essence, is tautological and contradictory. Lacking the sufficient braintrust to formulate effective foreign policy, the Sargsyan Administration’s relies on two precepts: conformism in its relations with Russia, and reactionary in its relations with the rest of the world. Simply put, the Sargsyan Administration has lacked a proactive foreign policy principle, relying on status-quo preservation, stagnation, and only in the face of crises, engaging in reactive or reciprocal measures. In comparison, while Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is collectively moronic, amateur, and at times asinine, it is at least proactive, as it has orchestrated a grand strategy to take the offensive against the Armenians, and as such, place us in a defensive posture. Sure, Azerbaijan miserably failed, especially through its Caviar Diplomacy, but at least this was proactive, well-organized, and at times, efficient. Compared to the mental-midgets of Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry, Armenian policy should not only be taking the initiative, but should robustly be maneuvering Azerbaijan into a highly defensive, immobile posture. My underlying argument here is that Armenia has been blessed, in the foreign policy realm, with an inept adversary; yet instead of profoundly dominating them, we are allowing them to be on par with us. This remains a singular achievement of the Sargsyan Administration.
Considering how banking failed to transition the country into the service sector, the next modality of argument praised the increased and growing tourism in the country. While tourism, indeed, has consistently and methodically grown in Armenia, can we at least pose one honest question: until only few years ago, what government policies, economic incentives, infrastructure development, or other such initiatives were undertaken to improve the country’s tourism industry? The very heart of Armenia’s tourism industry is hinged on its Diaspora; not on any government policy or economic plan. Only recently have we seen concerted government policies and programs targeting tourists from the Middle East, East Asia, and the post-Soviet Space; but even then, the great bulk of the tourist industry, again, is heavily hinged on the Armenian Diaspora. Collectively, the government’s indifference and inaction cannot be concealing by pointing to statistics and numbers as demonstrations of the growth of Armenia’s tourism industry: one simply cannot take credit for something that one has done almost nothing towards.
Even the current tax-exemptions that the government has offered to IT startups reeks of nonsensical opportunism: the government won’t invest in your growth, but at least it won’t squeeze you for the money that you yet don’t have!
Similar to the robust tourism industry, it boggles the mind that supporters of the government point to the healthy growth of the Armenian IT sector, as if this was somehow funded, organized, and developed by the government. Fundamentally relying on the investments of patriotic Diasporans, Armenia’s IT sector growth is a byproduct of devout and wealthy Diasporan actors who invested in educational centers, knowledge-transmission, importing of experts, and more importantly, creating a culture where Armenia’s human capital can shine. And shine it has. But not because of anything that the Sargsyan Administration has done. Their minimalist contributions, in opportunistic fashion, upon which they have sought to syphon off credit from the tremendous work done by the actual contributors to the country’s IT sector is quite insulting. Even the current tax-exemptions that the government has offered to IT startups reeks of nonsensical opportunism: the government won’t invest in your growth, but at least it won’t squeeze you for the money that you yet don’t have!
In the midst of the economic recession that engulfed the global markets, coupled with the heavy sanctions enacted against Russia by the West, thus indirectly affected Armenia’s economy, Sargsyan appointed Hovik Abrahamyan as PM, upon relieving Tigran Sarkisyan from the same post. At this stage, one immediately poses the most obvious question: on what basis did any of us think that Abrahamyan will be able to, at any level, produce positive outcomes? How can Sargsyan appoint someone like Abrahamyan, renowned for not only being corrupt and incompetent, but, in essence, a disgusting human being, as Prime Minister of the country? Yet, when the economy neared the brink of collapse, coupled with the turmoil created by the Sasna Tserer phenomenon, there was avery little blame on Sargsyan. Who was responsible for the dire economic conditions of the country? That would be the Prime Minister, Mr. Hovik Abrahamyan, the perfect scapegoat. The fact that Sargsyan appointed such an incompetent and problematic individual to such an important position escapes attention: all blame is placed on the scapegoat, and to appear as a reform-minded, elder statesman, Sargsyan immediately moved to replace him with a new PM. This modality of negating responsibility by scapegoating is neither clever nor strategic: it is purely dysfunctional.
