EVN Security Report

Armenia faces a complex security landscape, from immediate physical threats posed by Azerbaijan to multi-layered hybrid attacks. In this month’s security report, Nerses Kopalyan examines how Armenia is developing an advanced early warning system to shift from a reactive to a proactive defense strategy, leveraging information processing, intelligence, technology and strategic forecasting.

Ilham Aliyev considers the new regional balance of power his greatest geopolitical success and the preservation of this power disparity with Armenia his highest priority. As Armenia rearms and seeks to develop deterrence capacity, Aliyev deems this a threat to his grand strategy, thus heightening the probability of strategic strikes against Armenia.

Looking at the emerging contours of the Trump Doctrine and its implications for the South Caucasus, Nerses Kopalyan examines competing policy orientations within Trump's incoming administration and how these will shape U.S. engagement with Armenia amid broader global and geopolitical priorities.

Tracing decades of overreliance on Russia, systemic neglect of military modernization, and policy failures by successive Armenian administrations, Nerses Kopalyan presents a critical analysis of how Armenia’s security apparatus stood by as Azerbaijan became a regional military power.

Armenia faces distinct security threats from Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Russia, with Russia posing the most complex and severe challenge through cyber operations. This month's security briefing explores the concept of subversion as a tenable risk-mitigation strategy against these threats.

As the 2024 presidential elections approach, what will U.S. foreign policy hold for Armenia if Kamala Harris wins? Qualifying the body of information on Harris and her team's foreign policy orientations, Nerses Kopalyan provides an in-depth profile of how a Harris Administration will impact Armenia and the region.

There has been extensive debate about Washington’s strategic policy goals and growing investment in Armenia's security architecture. To understand the strategic framework guiding this engagement, the concept of “defense diplomacy” is introduced in this month’s security report.

A cursory review of public discourse and limited research on Armenia's security environment reveals a “levels of analysis” problem. This month’s security report introduces Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) to alleviate this serious analytical shortcoming.

Armenia must utilize the concept of de-hybridization to mitigate Azerbaijan’s non-linear warfare, which ranges from kinetic diplomacy to complex hybrid operations. Nerses Kopalyan explains what a strategy of de-hybridization for Armenia should look like.

In order for Armenia to mitigate, anticipate, and deter Azerbaijan's threats and potential attacks, it must understand and qualify the mechanisms that define the Aliyev regime’s propensity for bellicosity, and gauge its “coercive credibility”.