EVN Security Report

In Armenia, establishing a Western pivot was crucial to achieve an independent foreign policy and enhance security capabilities, paving the way for diversification in foreign and security relations. This process involves pivoting first, diversifying, and only then adopting hedging strategies.

As Armenia proceeds to diversify its access to armaments and advanced weapons systems, the development of a comprehensive, well-structured, and expert-driven procurement program will strengthen Armenia’s initiatives and support the strengthening and democratization of its defense sector.

Noting the instrumentalization of warfare as the dominant and preferred strategic tool of the Aliyev regime, a rationalist explanation of war is introduced in this month's security briefing to address the causal mechanisms shaping Aliyev’s incentives for being conflict-prone.

An institutional theory of security is necessary for Armenia so that it escapes institutional underdevelopment and the culture of inchoate security thinking inherited from the Soviet legacy, writes Nerses Kopalyan for the December 2023 security report.

Regional dynamics in November demonstrated acute developments that are on track to produce unanticipated realignments, altering Armenia’s security environment and enhancing its security and foreign policy diversification.

Armenia’s Western pivot is neither ideational nor conceptually geopolitical, it’s a matter of survival. The objective of the Western pivot is not about replacing one dependency structure with another, but rather, rupturing the entire logic of dependency and establishing sustainable security independence.

The status quo established by the Russo-Azerbaijani tandem in Nagorno-Karabakh completely broke down after Baku launched a massive invasion of Artsakh while coordinating operations with Russian forces. This culminated in the collapse of the Artsakh Republic. Nerses Kopalyan presents an in-depth analysis of developments.

The madman theory is a strategy in coercive bargaining, where the perceived extremism of an actor is leveraged to achieve one-sided outcomes. Aliyev’s bargaining posture operates off of the logic that if his terms are not met, he reserves the right to wage war, thus anchoring the threat of destruction to force acquiescence from Armenia and the international community.

Critical self-reflection is necessary as Armenia overhauls its intelligence infrastructure. For national security strategy to be concrete, substantive and operationalizable, it requires strategic intelligence. Nerses Kopalyan explains.

In this security report, scenario planning is fused with contingency planning to prepare courses of actions and outcomes that may address unexpected situations and mitigate significant impact to Armenia due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and its effect upon Russia’s domestic political order.