Revisiting the U.S. Response to the 2020 Artsakh War

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The 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) upended the 26-year-long status quo established by the 1994 ceasefire that ended the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. It ultimately led to the Azerbaijani takeover of the self-governing territory in September 2023 and the consequent forced exodus of its entire Armenian population. The six-week war also decimated Armenia’s military capabilities, exacerbating the disparity between the two countries and paving the way for further concessions under continued threats from Baku.

The Trump administration’s response to the war in 2020 was a bizarre mix of long-established American policy of a neutral mediator and Trump’s usual populist rhetoric, partly aimed at wooing Armenian-American voters as the war coincided with the presidential election campaign. The vote took place on November 3, a week before a Russian-mediated ceasefire was reached.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev wholeheartedly welcomed the Trump administration’s disengaged approach. He told Fox News during the war: “I think what President Trump does with respect to the conflict resolution is fully in line with international relations. We fully support his position, his personal comments on that.” He called the U.S. position “balanced” and said that both he and the Azerbaijani people “highly” support the “very straight forward position of President Trump.”

More recently, in July 2024, Aliyev stated at a “media forum” in Shushi that Azerbaijan’s ties with the U.S. “have always been much more productive, fruitful, and result-oriented” under Republican administrations. “During President Trump’s presidency, we enjoyed very fruitful cooperation based on mutual respect and appreciation of each other’s support on different tracks. Our relations with the United States were pretty stable,” he added.

Initial Statements

On September 25, 2020, two days before fighting began, U.S. embassies in Yerevan and Baku issued security alerts warning U.S. citizens not to travel near the border.

On September 27, the day Azerbaijan launched its attack, the State Department issued a statement saying the U.S. is “alarmed” by the “large scale military action” and condemned the escalation “in the strongest terms”. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun called Foreign Ministers Jeyhun Bayramov and Zohrab Mnatsakanyan to urge for an immediate ceasefire. That day, Trump told reporters: “It just happened. And I know about it. I learned about it today and yesterday. And we’re looking at it very strongly. We have a lot of good relationships in that area. We’ll see if we can stop it.”

A joint statement by presidents Trump, Putin, and Macron on October 1 condemned the escalation “in the strongest terms” and called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities” and resumption of “substantive negotiations, in good faith and without preconditions” under the Minsk Group. A similar statement was issued by the foreign ministers four days later.

When Pashinyan spoke with Trump’s National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien on October 1, the latter promised to set up a phone call with Trump, which never took place as Trump tested positive for the coronavirus the next day. The New York Times argued that it “only accentuated his administration’s disengagement” from the conflict.

State Secretary Mike Pompeo rarely mentioned the war until mid-October, when America increasingly stepped up its diplomatic engagement. As one commentator noted, until then, the U.S. “seems to have barely taken notice” of the fighting.

On October 13, Pompeo called on both countries to implement a ceasefire and “cease targeting civilian areas, such as Ganja and Stepanakert.” Asked during a briefing the next day what the administration is doing and whether they have talked to the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Pompeo said he does not “want to get into the conversations that are ongoing.” He said he spoke with Trump about it “briefly.” Pompeo insisted that the administration is paying a “great deal of attention to it” and has “done some work that […] increases the likelihood” of getting a ceasefire and an “outcome that is a solution based on international law.” Pompeo further noted: “We’ve watched Turkey begin to reinforce Azerbaijan. We’ve asked every international player to stay out of the region, not to continue to reinforce trouble, and we’re working to deliver that.”

Pompeo made further remarks about the war on talk radio on October 15. He noted that Turkey has “stepped in and provided resources to Azerbaijan, increasing the risk, increasing the firepower” in what he described as a “historic fight.” He criticized Turkey’s role, saying the conflict cannot be resolved with “third party countries coming in to lend their firepower to what is already a powder keg of a situation.” He expressed hope that Armenians “will be able to defend against what the Azerbaijanis are doing.”

Three weeks into the fighting, Trump said, at a campaign rally in Carson City, Nevada on October 18, that Armenians have a “beautiful flag” and a “great spirit for their country.” He added: “We are working on some things” without elaborating.

Mediation Efforts

The most significant diplomatic intervention by the U.S. occurred on October 23, when Secretary Pompeo held separate meetings with Foreign Ministers Mnatsakanyan and Bayramov in Washington. Pompeo said they discussed “critical steps” to halt the violence and again called for a ceasefire and return to substantive negotiations. A State Department statement referred to the Helsinki Final Act principles of the non-use or threat of force, territorial integrity, and the equal rights and self-determination of peoples.

On the same day, asked if he is going to play any role in the conflict, Trump told reporters: “Yes, we’re talking about it. We’re working with Armenia. We have a very good relationship with Armenia. They’re very good people. They’re so dedicated. They’re incredible people, and we’ll see what happens.” Asked whether he had spoken to either leader, Trump said: “I don’t want to say. But we will see what happens. I think really good progress is being made with respect to that. We have a lot of people living in this country originally from Armenia, and they’re great people, and we’re going to help them. Okay?”

National Security Advisor O’Brien also met with the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers in Washington. He said he “pressed” Bayramov for an “immediate ceasefire” and Minsk Group-facilitated negotiations with Armenia, and “rejection of outside actors further destabilizing the situation.” He said the conflict has no military solution. Following his meeting with Mnatsakanyan, O’Brien said the U.S. will continue its “strongest diplomatic efforts at all levels until the conflict is resolved.” O’Brien told CBS that Armenia has accepted a ceasefire, while Azerbaijan has not yet. “We’re pushing them [Azerbaijan] to do so,” he noted.

At a campaign rally in Londonderry, New Hampshire on October 25, Trump said Armenians are “incredible people” and are “fighting like hell.” He added, “you know what we’re going to get something done. […] The problems they’ve had, with the death and the fighting, we’re going to get that straightened out. […] I call that an easy one.” He told a group of Armenian-American supporters: “Go back and tell your people, we’ll get that straightened out.”

A U.S.-mediated humanitarian ceasefire was announced on the same day after “intensive negotiations.” Trump congratulated Pashinyan and Aliyev on agreeing to adhere to a cease fire. “Many lives will be saved. Proud of my team […] for getting the deal done!” he tweeted. This was the third international effort to broker a ceasefire. The first was mediated by Russia on October 10 and the second by France on October 17. 

It, like the previous two attempts, failed and resumption of fighting was reported almost immediately. A New York Times editorial argued the collapse of the ceasefire was indicative of the Trump administration’s “lost standing in the world.” Trump initially insisted it was holding, but subsequently conceded that it had collapsed: “Yeah, it’s disappointing to see that, but that’s what happens when you have countries that have been going at it for a long time. It’ll get back together.”

Pompeo spoke with Pashinyan and Aliyev separately on October 27 to “press” them to “abide by their commitments to cease hostilities and pursue a diplomatic solution.” O’Brien also spoke with Pashinyan two days later. “The people of both countries have suffered badly, with the people of Armenia, who are facing offensive military operations, now taking the brunt of the casualties,” he said. According to Pashinyan’s office, O’Brien “assured that they will continue their mediation efforts aimed at achieving a ceasefire and ruling out the involvement of third parties in the conflict.”

The U.S. also engaged in diplomacy multilaterally within the OSCE Minsk Group, mandated to coordinate the negotiations along with Russia and France. The co-chairs of the Minsk Group met separately and jointly with Foreign Ministers Mnatsakanyan and Bayramov in Geneva on October 30 to call for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.

Scandinavian Peacekeepers

Trump’s National Security Advisor O’Brien delivered a noteworthy speech at a meeting with Armenian community leaders in Los Angeles on October 30. He said Trump, who has “great affection for the people of Armenia, especially for our Armenian Americans,” had asked him to stop and see “some of our Armenian friends and spend some time with them” as O’Brien was heading to the West Coast for a visit to an Air Force base in Nevada.

O’Brien said that there are “no indications at this point that Azerbaijan intends to stop its offensive military campaign in the near future.” He acknowledged that Azerbaijan has “technical assistance and advisory support from Turkey,” which had given it an edge. He was also explicit in that Azerbaijan has “been the most hesitant about an unconditional ceasefire to date.”

O’Brien argued that it is “hard to envision a long-term ceasefire settlement that does not involve multinational armed peacekeeping forces or observers.” He posited that such a force should not include Minsk Group co-chairs (U.S., France, Russia) or Turkey. “We believe that both parties should accept Scandinavian peacekeepers, and we’re working with Scandinavian governments to put together a peacekeeping force that could be deployed into the region to keep a ceasefire,” O’Brien said.

His remarks on Scandinavian peacekeepers raised eyebrows and were largely dismissed by Armenia, Russia, and the Scandinavians themselves. Vagharshak Harutyunyan, a senior advisor to Pashinyan, opined that it was “just a proposal” and unlikely to become reality. Armenia’s Foreign Ministry later revealed that Armenia had not received an official proposal. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said at the time that the idea of deploying Scandinavian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh should be coordinated with the conflicting parties. “You should ask the Americans where they got these proposals and ideas,” he added. 

Norway and Sweden told PanARMENIAN.Net that they have not been contacted for putting together a peacekeeping force, while Finland declined to comment and Denmark did not respond. Sweden’s former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt opined: “With its upcoming OSCE chairmanship, Sweden can hardly stay away from a possible peacekeeping mission in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. But we are certainly very far from that as of now. First there must be a peace to keep.”

An email correspondence from November 2, acquired by Blankspot from Sweden’s Foreign Ministry, shows that the U.S. sought to find alternatives to the prospective deployment of Russian peacekeepers, “or at least to have the ability to offer ones in the long run.” The idea was soon abandoned however. Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde, who was to chair the OSCE in 2021, noted two days after the ceasefire that her country is “not neutral, it is non-aligned.”

Syrian Mercenaries

American officials acknowledged the deployment of Syrian mercenary fighters by Turkey to Azerbaijan both publicly and anonymously. They were not as outspoken about the issue as their Russian and French counterparts.

A senior Pentagon official confirmed it on October 1 to Sky News Arabia. Pompeo told reporters the next day that he had seen the reports, noting that Syrian fighters taken by Turkey to Libya created “more instability” there and expressed hope that the “reporting proves inaccurate.” National Security Adviser O’Brien told Armenian-American leaders on October 30 that despite Turkish denials, “there are credible reports” about their deployment into the conflict in Karabakh.

The presence of mercenaries was acknowledged post-war by Assistant Secretary of State Philip Reeker during a Congressional hearing on December 8. He said the U.S. was “very concerned” about Turkey’s role and that it has “a lot of questions” about “foreign fighters being brought in, weapons being provided.”

Ceasefire and Post-war

A Russian-mediated ceasefire was reached on November 9/10, 2020. At a meeting in Paris a week later, Secretary Pompeo and his French counterpart Le Drian discussed Nagorno-Karabakh “extensively” and expressed commitment to their role as Minsk Group co-chairs. A State Department spokesperson said they recognized Russia’s actions that led to a ceasefire, but also acknowledged that “there were still a lot of questions that needed clarity from the Russians as to the parameters of that agreement, and that included the role of the Turks.” At the NATO foreign ministers’ teleconference on December 1, Pompeo reportedly spoke of Turkey’s “provocative” activities in Nagorno-Karabakh and elsewhere.

In a separate statement, Pompeo welcomed the cessation of hostilities and announced that the U.S. is providing $5 million in humanitarian assistance to assist people affected by the fighting. “When humanitarian disaster strikes, the U.S. leads the world in responding,” he stated. 

Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov of Russia, Jean-Yves Le Drian of France, and Deputy U.S. Secretary of State Stephen E. Biegun issued a joint statement on December 3 welcoming the cessation of military activities and called on the sides to fully implement obligations under the tripartite statement and called for the “full and prompt departure from the region of all foreign mercenaries.”

Biden Campaign

Former Vice President Joe Biden, Trump’s opponent in the presidential race, put out several statements about the war. On September 29, he tweeted that the Trump administration “needs to call the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan immediately to de-escalate the situation” and “demand others—like Turkey—stay out of this conflict.”

In an October 13 statement, the Biden campaign said the Trump administration had been “largely passive, and disengaged” as neither Trump nor Pompeo had called the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. “Rather than delegating the diplomacy to Moscow, the administration must get more involved, at the highest levels, by working with our European partners to de-escalate the fighting and return the two sides to negotiations,” it said. 

It went on to say the Trump administration “must tell Azerbaijan that it will not tolerate its efforts to impose a military solution to this conflict” and “make clear to Armenia that regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be occupied indefinitely.” It further urged Trump to “stop coddling Ankara and tell both Turkey and Iran to stay out of this conflict” as “Turkey’s provision of arms to Azerbaijan and bellicose rhetoric encouraging a military solution are irresponsible.” The Biden statement said the Trump administration has an “obligation to try” to achieve a “diplomatic resolution”.

The Biden–Harris campaign issued a position paper on October 16 outlining what the administration would accomplish on Armenian issues. It said Biden will “push for lasting peace in the region, reinvigorating U.S. engagement” in resolving the Karabakh conflict, including by “seeking additional international observers to monitor the ceasefire” and by working to “prevent interference by third parties, including nation-states like Turkey, and foreign mercenaries paid to commit crimes against the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.”

A statement released on October 28 by the Biden campaign warned that a “large-scale humanitarian disaster is looming” for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, who “need to have their security protected.” It urged Trump to “get involved personally” and “directly engage” the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey and to “stop the advance of Azerbaijani troops into Nagorno-Karabakh.” It also said the Trump administration “must fully implement and not waive requirements under section 907 of the Freedom Support Act to stop the flow of military equipment to Azerbaijan” from the U.S. 

After Biden’s election as president, Pashinyan congratulated him, saluting his vision for the resolution of the conflict as laid out as during his campaign. “I am hopeful that your Administration will take active steps to stop the war and bring about a comprehensive settlement of the conflict based on safeguards providing for the security of the people of Artsakh through the exercise of its right to self-determination,” Pashinyan said.

Congressional Democrats

A House of Representatives bill, proposed by Jackie Speier of California was introduced on October 1, but did not receive a vote. It was backed by 112 other members (a little over a quarter of the total), mostly by Democrats, but also 14 Republicans. It condemned Azerbaijan’s “continued aggressive military operations” in Nagorno-Karabakh and denounced Turkey’s “reported participation in and escalation of the conflict” under President Erdogan.

Leading pro-Armenian voices were critical of the Trump administration’s handling of the conflict. Senator Bob Menendez, Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said top Trump administration officials “decided to remain largely absent throughout this conflict.” Senator Ed Markey, a member of the same committee, said the U.S., under Trump-Pompeo leadership, “again ceded an important foreign policy matter to Russia,” calling it a “disgrace.” He said it is a “stain on [the Trump] administration that they’ve allowed President Trump’s friend Erdogan to stage a land-grab in the South Caucasus and make a mockery of the OSCE Minsk process.” Similarly, Congressman Brad Sherman said the “Trump Administration’s absence was glaring and led to disastrous results for the people of Armenia.” He said the ceasefire agreement was drafted by none other than Putin and Erdogan as a result of a “lack of U.S. leadership.”

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