Russia’s recent diplomatic push in the South Caucasus revealed more strain than strength. Olesya Vartanyan’s analysis unpacks Moscow’s faltering influence in Armenia and Azerbaijan as the region edges further from its traditional power center.

Amid rising authoritarianism in Georgia and Azerbaijan, Armenia stands as a fragile outlier of democratic pluralism. Olesya Vartanyan examines whether it can withstand the regional tide of repression, or if pluralism is the country’s final safeguard for resilience.

Baku and Yerevan have declared their negotiations over, a moment that should, in theory, mark a diplomatic milestone. Yet the actual signing and implementation of a peace agreement remains elusive, if not outright uncertain. With the process stalled in an ambiguous interim phase, this new reality necessitates a careful assessment of the risks and uncertainties defining this transitional period.

Georgia’s leadership continues to tighten its grip on the ongoing protests, fueling suspicions that the country is drifting toward an authoritarian model similar to Azerbaijan. Armenia remains one of the few regional allies still willing to engage with Tbilisi’s embattled government.

Russia’s immediate focus remains on Ukraine, leaving little attention for other geopolitical concerns. While the long-term outlook is uncertain, this does not necessarily signal a return to its former influence over the South Caucasus. Olesya Vartanyan explains.

Armenia’s government has introduced a law to pursue EU membership, signaling ambitions to align with Europe’s governance standards. Though membership is distant, the initiative could drive internal transformation, drawing lessons from neighboring countries' experiences on similar paths.

Following Azerbaijan's 2022 attack on Armenia, the EU quickly deployed a civilian mission to monitor the situation along the tense border. While the mission has helped to maintain a fragile calm, Azerbaijan has made its removal one of the conditions for progress in peace talks with Armenia.

As Georgia grapples with political turbulence and debates its path toward the European Union, its future will inevitably influence Armenia. Meanwhile, Georgia’s recent history in navigating relations with the West offers valuable lessons that Armenia might consider for its own journey.

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency may not bode well for Armenia. Yet, it is a reality beyond its control, demanding clear-eyed pragmatism to preserve and build upon the hard-won partnership cultivated in recent years.

As Georgian opposition parties reject election results and refuse parliamentary seats, ruling Georgian Dream party claims victory, dismissing international calls to probe alleged fraud or rerun elections in disputed districts. The standoff intensifies, risking heightened tensions in Georgia and across the South Caucasus.