Beyond Borders
This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan reflect the region’s complex histories, economic developments, and political shifts. While new generations in these countries grow more isolated from one another due to language barriers and conflicting national trajectories, the same is true for local policymakers, who are often more familiar with distant capitals than their immediate neighbors. Each nation seeks its own path, sometimes in conflict with others, while international actors often treat the region as a whole, reluctant to craft policies specific to individual states. Drawing on personal experience with the region’s revolutions, conflicts and transformations, Olesya brings you Beyond Borders—a column exploring how decisions made in one corner of the South Caucasus impact all who live there.
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For nearly three weeks, Donald Trump has been fielding congratulatory calls from leaders around the globe—a ritual that has played out largely in the public eye, thanks to world leaders on the other side of the line rather than Trump himself. Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, was no exception.
Ten days after Trump’s electoral victory was declared, Pashinyan’s office issued a brief statement about a phone call with the U.S. president-elect. While details were scarce and the duration of the conversation undisclosed, the call was notable for one reason: no U.S. president-elect had ever taken a call from an Armenian leader before. The gesture, unconventional as it may have been, aligns with Trump’s penchant for eschewing protocol in favor of his own understanding of interest. For Pashinyan, however, this was a coup of sorts—an opportunity, as he later recounted in a television interview, to brief Trump on the current state of Armenia-U.S. relations.
That relationship is of singular importance to Pashinyan’s administration, which has poured significant effort into deepening ties with Washington over the past three years. These efforts have borne fruit: in September, the U.S. doubled its aid to Armenia, marking a milestone in bilateral cooperation. The new initiatives included sectors that U.S. policymakers had previously shied away from, including energy and security. Yerevan, naturally, hopes to see these commitments upheld. But could Trump’s return to prominence present new opportunities for Armenia to explore?
Beyond Democratic Values
The Biden administration has been an unusually supportive partner for Armenia, even though Nikol Pashinyan is the first Armenian leader to have neither visited the Oval Office nor met a U.S. president in person. The Biden administration’s most significant failure came last year, when it was unable to prevent a major crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to the exodus of the region’s entire ethnic Armenian population. Despite this, Biden’s government has delivered more to Armenia than any American administration in the past three decades.
Some attribute this to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has plunged relations between Moscow and the West to historic lows, making Armenia—Russia’s formal ally in the South Caucasus—an unexpectedly appealing partner for Washington. Others point to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which diminished Azerbaijan’s strategic importance as a transit hub and shifted regional dynamics in Yerevan’s favor.
Armenia’s pivot toward the West was born of necessity. The country’s defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War raised serious questions about Moscow’s reliability as a security guarantor. The urgency only deepened with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, heightening anxieties in countries dependent on Moscow. As one seasoned diplomat observed, the stakes for Armenia are stark: “If Russia wins, you’ll face a stronger Russia, which might devour you. If Russia loses, it’ll drag you to the bottom with it.”
The foundation for strengthening U.S.-Armenian relations has been rooted in shared democratic values. For the Biden administration, revitalizing democracy globally became a key priority, countering what it saw as a steady global erosion of democratic norms. Armenia, fresh from the 2018 Velvet Revolution, was a natural partner. It’s no coincidence that Pashinyan’s sole virtual encounter with Biden occurred during the 2021 Summit for Democracy. Nor is it surprising that both Armenian officials and Western diplomats have been acutely conscious of how Armenia’s democratic image plays on the global stage. I recall a Western diplomat who—before even shaking my hand—felt compelled to reassure me that Armenia had “no issues with freedoms,” even as police were dispersing an opposition rally in Yerevan’s center. The eagerness to maintain Armenia’s democratic veneer underscores how critical this notion has been to its evolving relationship with Washington.
This democratic narrative will likely take a back seat when Donald Trump returns to the White House. Trump tends to favor a transactional, pragmatic approach to foreign policy, with little emphasis on promoting democracy. For Yerevan, the challenge will be to identify and leverage strategic interests that will continue to resonate with Washington, regardless of who occupies the Oval Office.
Making a Deal
In this context, a potential agreement with Azerbaijan could represent the low-hanging fruit—despite its profound difficulties and complexities. Such a deal, with its potential for clear, measurable outcomes, could appeal to Trump’s transactional instincts. Continued dialogue with Baku offers Yerevan not only a path to relative stability along its borders but also a critical stepping stone toward reopening the Armenian-Turkish border—the most significant potential outcome in this entire process. Achieving this breakthrough could fundamentally reshape Armenia’s position in the region.
The linked issue of reopening the border and normalizing relations with Turkey represents a potentially transformative shift. For Ankara, resolving its protracted disputes with Armenia would consolidate Turkey’s strategic influence in the South Caucasus. Timing, however, is critical. Such a breakthrough would be most advantageous before Moscow can pivot its focus back to its neighbors, as a ceasefire in Ukraine would free up Russian resources to potentially reassert dominance in the region.
The United States has sought to reshape the South Caucasus’ geopolitical landscape, using mediation as a tool to promote a new regional order. The Biden administration, which took a historic decision to recognize the Armenian genocide, continued to link this topic with the goal of achieving full normalization between Armenia and Turkey. While Trump’s current team has yet to make any formal statements on the matter, some elements within his orbit are likely to favor reducing Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus while amplifying Turkey’s role. This aligns with Washington’s broader preference for a regional balance that weakens Moscow’s grip.
Yet these ambitions face a formidable obstacle: Azerbaijan. Over the past year, Baku has consistently raised additional demands, even when many believed a deal was imminent. Azerbaijan already struggles to reconcile its stance with Turkey, as Baku’s unwillingness to finalize agreements with Armenia impedes Ankara’s broader strategic goals in the region. Azerbaijan’s staunch refusal to involve Western mediators has allowed it to retain control over the negotiation process. Just last month, President Ilham Aliyev received a letter from President Biden’s envoy urging progress on a peace deal. Yet this overture failed to shift Baku’s position in the slightest.
The extent to which Trump’s team will involve itself in these negotiations remains unclear. But it’s important to remember that Trump, a president known for his pragmatism, demands visible results. His administration’s first major move on regional issues was to withdraw the U.S. from the OSCE Minsk Group, deeming it a dysfunctional relic of post-Cold War diplomacy. While the U.S. technically retained its seat, Trump’s officials were largely disengaged, with many reportedly struggling to locate Nagorno-Karabakh on a map when war broke out in 2020. If Trump’s team engages at this stage, they will almost certainly want quick results—whether in the Armenian-Azerbaijan talks, the Armenian-Turkey normalization process, or ideally, both.
Work
Amid the complexities that a second Trump presidency might bring to Armenia, one thing remains clear: the importance of nurturing the relationship. Yerevan managed to navigate the outgoing administration with notable success. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, despite his preoccupation with crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, maintained a steady focus on the region. USAID Administrator Samantha Power made two trips to Armenia, witnessing the exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh and, a year later, returning to announce new partnership initiatives that her team had managed to push through in Washington. But it wasn’t just these two—many others, behind the scenes, have been invested in Armenia’s cause. The real challenge now will be cultivating these relationships in the incoming administration.
Trump’s new team may well include individuals who understand Armenia’s concerns. The challenge, however, will be converting these connections into tangible, long-term initiatives. Yerevan must not procrastinate. Visits, calls, and regular engagements—with key figures, institutions, and, not least, the diaspora—will be essential. But these conversations must center on clear goals and measurable outcomes. U.S.-Armenia relations cannot be built overnight, but the groundwork has been laid. And it is a foundation worth building upon.
