EVN Security Report

Before details of the Washington Accords emerged, pro-Russian factions in Armenia and the Diaspora launched a coordinated disinformation campaign. Drawing on scholarship, Nerses Kopalyan examines the “misinformation virus” as a hybrid warfare weapon undermining Armenia’s resilience and stability.

Amid U.S.-brokered diplomacy, Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to the TRIPP transit route through Syunik, securing Armenian sovereignty while advancing normalization. The Washington Summit cements America’s growing role in reshaping interconnectivity and trade in the South Caucasus, while limiting Baku’s capacity for renewed aggression, writes Nerses Kopalyan.

Armenia faces a strategic dilemma after the 12-Day War, when Israel and the United States tried to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program through force. With key bilateral partnerships on both sides, Yerevan needs to utilize the policy of strategic ambiguity to navigate an increasingly complex and high-risk regional landscape.

What mutually beneficial foundations could bring France, India, Poland and Armenia together in a security alliance, and what might such a quartet mean for Armenia’s security architecture? To explore this, Nerses Kopalyan introduces the concept of securitized minilateralism.

Drawing from Moldova’s recent experience, Armenia must brace for a coordinated and covert Kremlin strategy aimed at electoral interference and destabilizing its democracy ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Nerses Kopalyan explains Russia’s evolving hybrid warfare tactics and “traceless manipulation” operations.

Aliyev’s unilateral declaration of a draft peace agreement was a calculated gamble to capture U.S. attention rather than a genuine step toward peace with Armenia. This strategy backfired, exposing Azerbaijan’s bad faith engagement, with Washington preferring the narrative of its strategic partner Armenia.

Armenia faces a complex security landscape, from immediate physical threats posed by Azerbaijan to multi-layered hybrid attacks. In this month’s security report, Nerses Kopalyan examines how Armenia is developing an advanced early warning system to shift from a reactive to a proactive defense strategy, leveraging information processing, intelligence, technology and strategic forecasting.

Ilham Aliyev considers the new regional balance of power his greatest geopolitical success and the preservation of this power disparity with Armenia his highest priority. As Armenia rearms and seeks to develop deterrence capacity, Aliyev deems this a threat to his grand strategy, thus heightening the probability of strategic strikes against Armenia.

Looking at the emerging contours of the Trump Doctrine and its implications for the South Caucasus, Nerses Kopalyan examines competing policy orientations within Trump's incoming administration and how these will shape U.S. engagement with Armenia amid broader global and geopolitical priorities.

Tracing decades of overreliance on Russia, systemic neglect of military modernization, and policy failures by successive Armenian administrations, Nerses Kopalyan presents a critical analysis of how Armenia’s security apparatus stood by as Azerbaijan became a regional military power.