Armenia’s EU Ambition

[Beyond Borders]

This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan reflect the region’s complex histories, economic developments, and political shifts. While new generations in these countries grow more isolated from one another due to language barriers and conflicting national trajectories, the same is true for local policymakers, who are often more familiar with distant capitals than their immediate neighbors. Each nation seeks its own path, sometimes in conflict with others, while international actors often treat the region as a whole, reluctant to craft policies specific to individual states. Drawing on personal experience with the region’s revolutions, conflicts and transformations, Olesya brings you Beyond Borders—a column exploring how decisions made in one corner of the South Caucasus impact all who live there.

Armenia's EU Ambition, Olesya Vartanyan

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Armenia’s leadership has announced a new law aimed at setting the country on a path toward membership in the European Union. While the prospect of joining the EU remains a distant ambition, the initiative has the potential to catalyze Armenia’s internal transformation, laying the groundwork for alignment with Europe’s governance and institutional standards. Lessons from the recent experiences of its neighbors—who have already taken similar paths—could prove invaluable.

In an assertive start to the year, the Armenian government swiftly declared its intent to draft this ambitious legislation. Although still in its infancy, the proposal seeks to formally initiate Armenia’s journey toward EU membership.

As of now, only the law’s title has been disclosed, and the draft has yet to enter public discussion. During a recent cabinet meeting, however, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan offered a glimpse into the government’s aspirations, highlighting key areas where closer integration with Europe could benefit Armenia: democratization, economic development, and fostering vibrant scientific cooperation.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan framed the initiative as a precursor to future negotiations with the EU, envisioning it as the catalyst for a new roadmap of cooperation. His rhetoric reflects not only the government’s ambitions but also a broader strategic aim to deepen ties with the West amid a complex regional landscape.

Whatever the outcome, this legislative initiative is bound to spark robust debate over Armenia’s European trajectory. Even at this early stage, the proposal carries significant weight, holding the promise of reshaping the country’s future and influencing the lives of Armenians in ways both practical and symbolic.

Do Well What You Are Already Doing

The European Union’s reluctance to engage in discussions with new accession candidates is well-known. The bold decision to grant candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia has already stretched the EU’s capacity. Early calculations in some European capitals suggest that fulfilling these commitments will require immense resources and years of effort.

But this reality should not discourage Armenia—and rightly so. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reshaped the region’s dynamics, prompting Western nations to consider deeper cooperation with Armenia, including in areas once deemed off-limits, such as security and energy.

The EU has already demonstrated its support. Two years ago, it launched a civilian monitoring mission along Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan. Through the European Peace Facility, the EU has provided additional assistance aimed at bolstering Armenia’s resilience in the region. It has also supported major infrastructure projects, including road construction in southern Armenia. In September, the EU initiated official dialogue on visa liberalization for Armenian citizens—a step that promises greater mobility and deeper integration.

These initiatives hold the potential to drive meaningful change, but they also require Armenia to put in the work. The visa liberalization process, for instance, is an enticing prospect. When completed, it would allow Armenians to visit EU countries for short-term stays without the burden of lengthy queues and hefty visa fees. But this milestone demands diligent preparation from the Armenian government.

Georgia’s experience offers valuable lessons. When Tbilisi pursued visa liberalization, it wasn’t merely a matter of technical fixes or border upgrades. The process required comprehensive reforms and withstood intense scrutiny from EU officials.

One significant hurdle for Georgia was demonstrating its commitment to human rights and freedoms—an issue that, while seemingly unrelated to visas, symbolized the country’s ability to provide equitable check systems for citizens and visitors alike. This required the adoption of anti-discrimination laws ensuring equal rights for all, including ethnic, religious, and gender minorities, as well as the LGBT community.

For Georgia, the latter point sparked intense resistance. At one closed-door meeting over a decade ago that I attended, a Georgian minister harshly criticized the EU for what was perceived as an overemphasis on LGBT rights. Around the same time, the country experienced its first mass protests by traditionalist groups, which sometimes escalated into attacks on individuals with tattoos, piercings, or brightly dyed hair.

In Armenia, similar challenges persist. A recent European Court of Human Rights ruling highlighted the country’s shortcomings in addressing hate speech and discrimination against LGBT individuals. Enacting laws to address these issues may provoke domestic resistance. Separately, the government faces the sensitive task of supporting refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh. To prevent refugees from seeking asylum in Europe through visa-free travel, the government will need to strengthen housing, employment, and integration programs—areas where progress has lagged.

The proposed law could serve as a pivotal tool for Armenia. By formalizing commitments with the EU, it establishes a legal framework that facilitates the integration of European standards and requirements, creating a foundation for deeper bilateral cooperation. This framework has the potential to reshape institutions, encouraging them to operate in ways that align more closely with EU norms—an approach that would prove invaluable for any future discussions on cooperation. 

Additionally, the law could significantly enhance government transparency by mandating regular reporting on the progress of various institutions responsible for implementing EU-related commitments. Such reporting could be directed not only to parliament but also to civil society, fostering accountability and ensuring that stakeholders are informed about the steps being taken. This commitment to openness would encourage greater responsiveness and efficiency within state institutions, helping them evolve to meet the challenges of deeper EU-Armenia cooperation.

Prepare to Do More if You Aim For More

One rule about engaging with the EU is this: never start from scratch. The EU’s sprawling bureaucracy values continuity, preferring to build on existing frameworks. In this regard, Armenia already has a strong foundation in the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA).

Ratified by all EU member states in 2021, CEPA has served as a cornerstone for cooperation between Yerevan and Brussels. The agreement outlines collaboration across various sectors but lacks the political dimension seen in agreements with Armenia’s post-Soviet neighbors. It neither hints at potential association talks nor addresses economic sectors tied to Armenia’s membership in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.

Despite these limitations, CEPA is Armenia’s most credible starting point for deeper engagement with the EU. Some provisions remain unimplemented, which could complicate efforts to push beyond this framework. Nevertheless, pathways exist for Armenia to pursue what some already call a “CEPA+”—a broader, more ambitious partnership.

Moldova offers a compelling case study on that. This small country, bordered by Ukraine and Romania, has long struggled with unresolved conflicts in its breakaway Transnistria region, as well as corruption and stalled reforms. When Maia Sandu became president in late 2020, she immediately declared her intention to strengthen ties with Europe.

Her strategy was methodical and effective. Sandu assembled a team of experts, including members of European think tanks with extensive networks. She personally campaigned across European capitals, addressing diverse audiences to both allay concerns and communicate Moldova’s aspirations. This effort paid off: Moldova climbed the EU’s agenda and gained serious consideration for deeper integration.

For Armenia, the lesson is clear: articulate your aspirations and unique position effectively. Dialogue with EU officials and member state representatives visiting Yerevan or permanently based there is crucial, but final decisions on Armenia’s European trajectory will likely rest with political leaders in EU capitals, who weigh strategic and geopolitical considerations.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent remarks suggest that Armenia is ready to take this path. If so, sustained, strategic engagement will be essential to ensuring its voice is heard and its ambitions recognized.

About the author

Olesya Vartanyan is a conflict analyst with over 15 years of experience in the South Caucasus, specializing in security, peace processes, and foreign policy. She has collaborated with leading international organizations, including the International Crisis Group, OSCE, and Freedom House, where she led research on conflict zones like Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia, while contributing to public policy and confidential peace processes. Previously, she worked as a journalist, reporting on security and conflict issues, including groundbreaking coverage for The New York Times during the 2008 Russia-Georgia war. Olesya has received numerous accolades, including the International Young Women’s Peace Award and the EU’s Peace Journalism Prize. She holds master’s degrees from King’s College London and the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs.

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Olesya Vartanyan