Armenia’s Path to Visa-Free EU Access

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September 2024 marked an important milestone in EU-Armenia relations. After nearly a decade of successfully implementing the EU-Armenia Visa Facilitation and Readmission Agreements, the European Commission and Armenia initiated a visa liberalization dialogue. The process aims to establish visa-free short-stay travel for Armenian citizens to the EU, provided Armenia meets essential conditions for secure and well-managed mobility. The dialogue builds on the broader EU-Armenia relationship, which has deepened since the 2017 signing of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA). It also supports Armenia’s ongoing reforms in key areas like border control, migration management, anti-corruption measures, combating organized crime, and upholding fundamental rights—crucial steps for future visa-free travel.

While this development opens the door for Armenians and signals a positive step forward, it doesn’t mean visa-free travel will be implemented immediately. The European Commission and the Armenian Government will work together to ensure an efficient and effective dialogue. The process is merit-based, meaning it will take as long as necessary, with no automatic transition to visa-free travel. All benchmarks must be fully met before the Council of the EU and the European Parliament can make a final decision. Throughout the process, close cooperation with EU member states will be crucial to rigorously monitor progress and developments.

The EU’s cautious approach toward its Eastern Partnership countries—Armenia, Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine, Belarus and Azerbaijan—is grounded in careful consideration of political and security realities. The visa-free regime, granted to Moldova in 2014 and to Ukraine and Georgia in 2017, has been a significant achievement in these countries’ relationships with the EU. 

Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova: How It’s Going

Significant violations in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova make the EU hesitant to grant Armenian citizens visa-free access. These concerns are outlined in the Sixth Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council under the Visa Suspension Mechanism (2023). This report evaluates countries with visa-free access to the EU, highlighting challenges that influence EU visa policy decisions. The report focuses on key criteria such as visa policy alignment, document security (biometrics), integrated border management, and effective migration management. It also covers asylum procedures, irregular migration trends, international protection applications, and return and readmission processes. Furthermore, the report evaluates public order, security, and the impact of external relations and fundamental rights.

Before discussing the 2023 report’s figures, let’s examine current developments. Georgia now risks losing its visa-free regime with the EU. The EU may suspend this privilege for Georgia after the parliamentary elections on October 16 if any electoral integrity violations are found. Earlier this year, several EU countries urged the EU to consider sanctions against Georgia, including suspending the visa-free travel arrangement. This request followed the government’s passage of the controversial “foreign agents” law.

Additionally, nationals from visa-free countries—including Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine—will soon need to obtain an ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System) travel authorization starting in 2025. This applies to entry into Schengen countries.

ETIAS is linked to a traveler’s passport and is valid for up to three years or until the passport expires. A new passport requires a new ETIAS authorization.

With a valid ETIAS, entry to the EU is allowed for short-term stays of up to 90 days within any 180-day period. However, ETIAS does not guarantee entry, and border guards will verify documents upon arrival.

ETIAS is an online travel authorization, not a visa. This mechanism likely aims to better control irregular migration, which is a critical pillar for monitoring the visa-free regime.  Here are some recent statistics from the report reflecting developments in 2022, with 2023 data expected in the late autumn of this year.

In 2022, international protection applications submitted by Georgian nationals in EU Member States surged by 81%, totaling 26,450 compared to 14,635 in 2021. The recognition rate for these applications increased from 5% in 2021 to 7% in 2022. Additionally, there were 25 irregular border crossings by Georgian nationals into EU states. The number of Georgian nationals found residing without status in these countries rose by 87%, reaching 21,910 in 2022, up from 11,695 in 2021. Entry refusals issued to Georgian nationals also increased by 31%, from 3,030 in 2021 to 3,970 in 2022.

In 2022, the number of return decisions for Georgian nationals increased by 50%, totaling 16,275 compared to 10,820 in 2021. The number of individuals returned also grew significantly, rising by 57% from 4,935 in 2021 to 7,760 in 2022. Consequently, the return rate improved slightly from 46% in 2021 to 48% in 2022.

The situation for Ukrainian nationals differs significantly due to Russia’s unprovoked war. Since February 2022, over 16 million entries into the EU have been recorded—individuals fleeing conflict, with 14 million of those being Ukrainian nationals. In contrast, approximately 11.4 million border crossings occurred from the EU back to Ukraine.

During the initial months of the Russian aggression, entries surged, averaging around 800,000 per week and peaking at over 200,000 daily at the EU-Ukraine border. From April 2022 onward, this trend stabilized to approximately 240,000 entries per week, returning to pre-aggression and pre-pandemic levels.

Following the activation of the Temporary Protection Directive, 4,271,890 Ukrainian citizens were granted temporary protection in the EU and associated countries in 2022. Additionally, 27,135 Ukrainians sought international protection in EU states, a significant increase from 6,250 in 2021. The recognition rate rose from 17% to 88% during this period. Member states reported no issues in implementing the EU-Ukraine Readmission Agreement.

Applications for international protection by Moldovan nationals in EU member states increased by 6% from 2021 to 2022, rising from 7,900 to 8,365. The recognition rate also saw a slight increase, from 1% in 2021 to 2% in 2022.

In 2022, attempts by Moldovan nationals to cross EU external borders irregularly remained low, with only 29 cases reported—up from 21 in 2021. However, the number of Moldovan nationals found residing illegally in member states rose by 9%, from 40,945 in 2021 to 44,530 in 2022, representing a 9% rise. The number of Moldovan nationals refused entry in member states decreased by 19.5%, from 9,075 in 2021 to 7,305.

Both the number of return orders issued to Moldovan nationals and the number of actual returns saw increases. Return orders rose by 4%, totaling 8,250 in 2022 compared to 7,940 in 2021. Returns increased by 18.5%, from 2,400 in 2021 to 2,845 in 2022. This led to a higher return rate of 34% in 2022, up from 30% in 2021.

Based on the data we see:

Increased Migration Pressure: The significant rise in international protection applications from Georgian nationals indicates a growing migration trend, driven by various socioeconomic factors. In contrast, the situation for Ukrainians is primarily a response to the ongoing war, with millions seeking refuge in the EU.

Variable Recognition Rates: The recognition rate for Ukrainian applicants has soared to 88%, reflecting the EU’s strong support during the humanitarian crisis. Conversely, Georgian nationals face challenges with only a 7% recognition rate, while Moldovan applicants have the lowest at just 2%.

Irregular Migration Trends: While irregular border crossings by Moldovan and Georgian nationals remain relatively low, there is a significant increase in the number of individuals found residing illegally. This trend highlights ongoing issues of unauthorized migration.

Border Control and Returns: Recent data reveals an increase in Moldovan nationals, coupled with a decrease in entry refusals. This shift might indicate a more nuanced approach to border control in Moldova. Meanwhile, Georgian nationals are facing more frequent entry refusals.

Next Steps for Armenia

Obtaining a visa-free regime with the EU is not a sprint but a marathon, requiring sustained efforts from Armenia. Even after achieving visa-free status, the process will require ongoing reforms and adjustments.

A key reform Armenia must undertake is the introduction of biometric passports. In 2015, the Schengen Area states introduced the Visa Information System (VIS), a shared biometric database for Schengen visa applicants. This system requires applicants to provide fingerprints and biometric passport data, which remain valid for five years.

Looking ahead, Armenia plans to implement a new system for issuing ID cards and biometric passports by 2026. The project is currently in the second stage of its tender process, with private companies that passed the initial round receiving government proposals in September 2024. However, this is just one technical aspect of the broader process. 

Strengthening border management is essential, with improvements to integrated systems to ensure secure and efficient traveler movement while preventing illegal migration and trafficking. Effective migration and asylum management, aligned with EU standards, is also crucial to handle increased mobility and migratory pressures responsibly. Maintaining public order and security through robust law enforcement and cooperation with EU agencies will help combat organized crime and irregular migration. Ongoing legal and institutional reforms including anti-corruption measures, judicial independence, and governance improvements are vital to demonstrating Armenia’s readiness for the responsibilities of visa-free travel.

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