Examining the Context

In this episode of “Examining the Context” podcast, Dr. Nerses Kopalyan talks about how Armenia must anticipate, mitigate and deter the Aliyev regime's threats and potential attacks by gauging its coercive credibility through a threat matrix.

Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" talks about why establishing a Western pivot was crucial for Armenia to achieve an independent foreign policy and enhance its security capabilities. Kopalyan explains why this process involves pivoting first and only then adopting hedging strategies.

To strengthen and democratize its defense sector, Armenia needs to diversify access to armaments and advanced weapons systems and develop a comprehensive, well-structured and expert-driven procurement program. EVN Report’s Maria Titizian speaks with the author of “EVN Security Report” Dr. Nerses Kopalyan about the February 2024 security briefing.

For the January 2024 EVN Security Report, Dr. Nerses Kopalyan introduced a rationalist explanation of war to address the causal mechanisms shaping Aliyev’s incentives for being conflict-prone. He speaks with EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian about how rationalist models of war are applied to account for the decision-making and policy preferences of the Aliyev regime and why peace for the Azerbaijani president is deemed an “irrational” preference.

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" about the need for Armenia to have an institutional theory of security as chronic de-institutionalization and de-professionalization after independence eroded its capacity to develop a functional, institutionalized system of security.

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" about regional dynamics in November that demonstrated acute developments on track to produce unanticipated realignments, altering Armenia’s security environment and enhancing its security and foreign policy diversification.

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" about the objective of Armenia's Western pivot, which is neither ideational nor conceptually geopolitical but rather the need to rupture the entire logic of dependency and establish sustainable security independence for the Republic of Armenia.

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" about how the status quo established by the Russo-Azerbaijani tandem in Nagorno-Karabakh completely broke down after Baku, coordinating operations with Russian forces, launched a massive invasion, culminating in the collapse of the Artsakh Republic.

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" who explains the madman theory, a strategy in coercive bargaining, where the perceived extremism of an actor is leveraged to achieve one-sided outcomes. In this context, Kopalyan explains how Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s bargaining posture operates off of the logic that if his terms are not met, he reserves the right to wage war, thus anchoring the threat of destruction to force acquiescence from Armenia and the international community.

As the security environment in Armenia and Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) continues to be critical, Dr. Nerses Kopalyan (UNLV) speaks to EVN Report's Maria Titizian about the July 2023 Security Report and explains why any rearticulation of Armenia's new security architecture must integrate strategic intelligence.