Examining the Context

Examining the Context: Why the Aliyev Regime Prefers Warfare

For the January 2024 EVN Security Report, Dr. Nerses Kopalyan introduced a rationalist explanation of war to address the causal mechanisms shaping Aliyev’s incentives for being conflict-prone. He speaks with EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian about how rationalist models of war are applied to account for the decision-making and policy preferences of the Aliyev regime and why peace for the Azerbaijani president is deemed an “irrational” preference.
Examining the Context: Azerbaijan’s Madman Strategy and the Normalization of Coercion

Examining the Context: Azerbaijan’s Madman Strategy and the Normalization of Coercion

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" who explains the madman theory, a strategy in coercive bargaining, where the perceived extremism of an actor is leveraged to achieve one-sided outcomes. In this context, Kopalyan explains how Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s bargaining posture operates off of the logic that if his terms are not met, he reserves the right to wage war, thus anchoring the threat of destruction to force acquiescence from Armenia and the international community.

Examining the Context: Strategic Obstructionism and a Potemkin Hegemon

Examining the Context: Strategic Obstructionism and a Potemkin Hegemon

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly EVN Security Report, about the necessity of scenario and contingency planning to prepare courses of actions and outcomes to address unexpected situations and mitigate significant impact to Armenia due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and its effect upon Russia's domestic political order.

Examining the Context: The Geopoliticization of Democracy and the Problem of Illiberal Peace

Examining the Context: The Geopoliticization of Democracy and the Problem of Illiberal Peace

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with political scientist and international security expert Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" about the security context for March 2023. The briefing, entitled "The Geopoliticization of Democracy and the Problem of Illiberal Peace" looks at the growing Russian-Azerbaijani axis, and why Armenia must choose a liberal peacebuilding process over an authoritarian and illiberal peace process.

Examining the Context: Resilience

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with political scientist and international security expert Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" about the security context for February 2023. The briefing, entitled "Resilience" argues that Armenia must not only restructure its security architecture, but also develop comprehensive resiliency capabilities. Kopalyan defines five governance characteristics vital to building or effecting resilience: state capacity, selective decentralization, institutional memory, political inclusivity and strength of civil society.

Examining the Context: The Growing Russo-Azerbaijani Axis and Why Armenia Must Adopt a Porcupine Doctrine

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with political scientist and international security expert Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report" about the security context for January 2023. Kopalyan argues that taking into consideration the security situation and guided by a strategy of deterrence-by-denial, Armenia must develop a "porcupine doctrine" to deter Azerbaijan's objectives and the destabilizing designs of the Aliyev regime.

Examining the Context: Ontological Security and Azerbaijan’s Aversion to Peace

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with political scientist and international security expert Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report". The security context in December showed that regardless of negotiations or the general contours of a potential peace treaty, actual and sustainable peace with the Aliyev Government will remain elusive. This month’s security report introduces the concept of ontological security.

Examining the Context: Deterrence by Denial and Azerbaijan’s Aggressive Opportunism

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with political scientist and international security expert Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report". The security context for the month of November demonstrated observable decline for Armenia as Azerbaijan intensified and amplified its hybrid warfare activities, attempting to neutralize Armenia’s growing attempts at the diplomatization of its deterrence capabilities. Dr. Kopalyan speaks extensively about the blocking of the Lachin Corridor, Artsakh's only lifeline with the rest of the world, by so-called Azerbaijani eco-activists and the shutting off of the natural gas supply to Artsakh that will undoubtedly lead to a humanitarian catastrophe for the 120,000-strong population.

Examining the Context: Hybrid Warfare and the Asymmetrical Disparity

EVN Report's Editor-in-Chief Maria Titizian speaks with political scientist and international security expert Dr. Nerses Kopalyan, author of the monthly series "EVN Security Report". The security context for the month of October can be better understood as the changing configuration between Armenia's implementation of its diplomatization-of-security doctrine against Azerbaijan's multitiered hybrid warfare doctrine.