EU and the U.S. Pledge to Support Armenia’s Resilience

On April 5, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken joined in a high-level EU-US-Armenia meeting “in support of Armenia’s resilience”. First announced last October, the meeting was officially first confirmed on March 21. The State Department had said that the meeting was to showcase U.S. and EU support for Armenia’s economic resilience “as it works to diversify its trade partnerships and address humanitarian needs.”

The leaders made press statements and thereafter held a meeting, which Pashinyan described as “excellent.” A statement summarizing the agreements was released by the European Commission, the State Department, and the Prime Minister’s office. In short, the EU and the U.S. “reaffirm[ed] support for Armenia’s sovereignty, democracy, territorial integrity, and socio-economic resilience.”

In her press remarks, President von der Leyen announced 270 million euro in grants over the next four years to make the Armenian economy and society “more robust and resistant to shocks.” She said the EU was delivering on a promise “to stand shoulder to shoulder with Armenia.” Von der Leyen said the EU will invest in key infrastructure projects like the Black Sea electricity cable, and in Armenia’s renewable energy production and interconnections with Georgia. She welcomed Pashinyan’s Crossroads of Peace initiative and pledged “new measures for aviation and nuclear safety, and for trade diversification.” She said the EU has already provided 30 million euros in support of displaced Karabakh Armenians and is ready to “do more to support the[ir] long-term integration.” She concluded her remarks by saying that “Europe and Armenia share a long and common history” and that “the time has come to write now a new chapter.” She said the EU counts on the U.S. “as a committed and like-minded partner in these efforts.”

Secretary Blinken said his presence “reaffirm[s] transatlantic support for a democratic, prosperous future for the Armenian people and a more integrated and peaceful South Caucasus region.” He said the U.S. and the EU have to “harness this moment of choice for the Armenian people and for its leaders.” The U.S. plans to provide over $65 million in assistance from the 2023 fiscal year budget funds, up more than 50% from two years ago. He expressed the U.S.’s commitment to increase support for Armenia’s “democratic and economic resilience with investments for food security, digital infrastructure, diversification of energy, diversification of trade partners, and other priorities.” Blinken expressed continued support for the 100,000 displaced Karabakh Armenians, calling it “central to Armenia’s long-term stability and prosperity as well as its regional security.” Blinken said the U.S. supports the “ideas at the heart of” Pashinyan’s Crossroads of Peace proposal.

EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said EU-Armenia ties are “stronger than ever, and that there is a mutual interest to advance them further.” The U.S. and EU, he said, are “joining forces to demonstrate our strong commitment to Armenia’s sovereignty, democracy and resilience” and to advance ties with Armenia “in all dimensions.” Borrell also stated the EU will support Armenia tackle disinformation and improve media literacy.

Pashinyan said the high-level meeting “signifies Armenia’s expanding partnership” with the U.S. and EU. He stressed that despite multiple crises, Armenia has advanced democratically, and underscored his government’s commitment to reforms. He said that the “socio-economic inclusion” of Karabakh Armenian refugees is “of paramount importance.”

On the sidelines, Pashinyan also met with USAID administrator Samantha Power to discuss “current programs and upcoming initiatives,” including democratic and institutional reforms.

Azerbaijani, Russian, Turkish (Over)reactions

In the days leading up to the meeting, Azerbaijan and Russia heavily criticized it.

First, on March 27, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry issued a commentary on the meeting by claiming that it reportedly “envisages military components”, which causes “further concerns and undermine peace-building efforts in the region.” It described the meeting “one-sided and biased” and “based on a double standard approach” and criticized it for not being “fully transparent” and lacking “regional inclusivity”. The Azerbaijani MFA further claimed it “creates new dividing lines” and “spheres of influence in the region” and may create a “dangerous illusion” in Armenia that West will support it “in its possible renewed provocations against Azerbaijan.” In that case, the EU and the U.S. “will share responsibility for any possible destabilizing action by Armenia.”

The Armenian MFA responded by noting that the meeting is “aimed at developing and deepening existing relations and is not associated with any third countries.” It criticized Azerbaijan for rejecting Western mediation offers and called on Azerbaijan to accept proposals for a meeting in Washington and Brussels. On the same day, a State Department spokesperson said it was a “purely Armenia meeting” and that they “obviously would not agree” with Azerbaijani MFA comments.

On April 3, Secretary Blinken called Aliyev, whose office’s readout said the former sought to address Azerbaijan’s concern about the April 5 meeting and “stressed the importance of clarifying the issue by speaking with President Ilham Aliyev regarding this matter.” Blinken noted that it was “not aimed against Azerbaijan” and its primary focus will be Armenia’s economic development. In his turn, Aliyev reiterated the MFA’s allegations that “based on the information he [had] received, discussions preceding the trilateral meeting included topics such as military support for Armenia, joint military exercises, the establishment of military infrastructure along border areas with Azerbaijan, and Armenia’s arming through the EU’s European Peace Facility funded through the U.S. budget.” He called these “anti-Azerbaijan” and criticized the “non-transparent preparation, lack of inclusivity,” and insisted that Azerbaijan had “valid concerns” about it. Refusing to postpone it, he said, “would ultimately escalate tensions and create new dividing lines instead of fostering peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus.”

The State Department readout of the call did not mention the meeting. It instead noted that Blinken “underscored that there is no justification for increased tension on the border and cautioned that aggressive actions and rhetoric from any side would undermine prospects for peace.” Following the meeting, Assistant Secretary James O’Brien told reporters that he “never felt it was our business to convince Azerbaijan about the conference” and noted that the U.S. has been “very clear about what we intended to do, we have done exactly as we said.”

An Azerbaijani propaganda outlet, Caliber, claimed the meeting is “expected to agree on security cooperation” with Armenia, including “transfer of advanced military technologies and weapons systems, an increase in the number of training programs for the Armenian military, and joint exercises.” It also claimed that after the meeting the U.S. will supply “advanced military equipment and technology” to Armenia under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF), including anti-drone and air defense systems.

On April 4, when European Commission President von der Leyen called him, Aliyev reiterated Azerbaijan’s position on the meeting, “similar to the discussions” with Blinken, and “emphasized the need for regional inclusivity.” On April 5, before the meeting, Aliyev met with Turkey’s former Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and again criticized the meeting as a “source of danger” for the region. A readout by his office quoted Aliyev as saying that they interpret it “as being against Azerbaijan and cooperation in the South Caucasus” and with an apparent aim to establish “divisive lines” and “isolate” Azerbaijan.

Russia similarly reacted harshly to the meeting. On March 28, Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that “such meetings cause concern for most countries in the region because they are aimed not at achieving peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but at further Western penetration with its extremely destructive approaches in the South Caucasus, creating new dividing lines there, coercing the countries of the region to follow an anti-Russian agenda, undermining their centuries-old ties with Moscow, destabilizing existing mechanisms of regional security and economic cooperation.” She accused Armenia of “pretending not to understand what is being discussed” and of being “turned into a tool for implementing extremely dangerous plans of the collective West, which completely diverge from the fundamental interests of the Armenian people.”

In response, a State Department spokesperson reiterated that the meeting “is to focus on economic resilience for Armenia as it works to diversify its trade partnerships and address humanitarian needs, and nothing else.” In a subsequent briefing, the State spokesperson again reiterated that “it is not a regionally focused meeting.”

In an April 3 briefing, Zakharova said Armenia is “stubbornly ignoring the anti-Russia connotation of such events.” 

Following the meeting, Russia’s MFA issued a separate statement on April 5, echoing Azerbaijan, saying that it considers it yet “another attempt by the ‘collective West’ to drag the South Caucasus into geopolitical confrontation.” It called Western “intervention” in the region “irresponsible and destructive”, with a “desire to drive a wedge between the countries of the region and their neighbors,” which could lead to destabilization, the “emergence of new dividing lines”, and “uncontrolled escalation of tensions.” Russia further claimed the West “wants to turn Armenia into a tool for implementing its extremely dangerous intentions in the South Caucasus” and pushes toward Armenia’s withdrawal from Russian-led CSTO and the EAEU, the withdrawal of the Russian military base, and border guards from Armenia. “We urge the leadership in Yerevan not to let the West deceive itself and lead the country down a false path, fraught with the emergence of a security vacuum, serious economic problems, and population outflow,” the Russian MFA said. It argued that the grant support announced during the meeting is “incomparable with the multibillion-dollar benefits that Armenia continues to receive from cooperation with Moscow.” Russia insisted that regional issues “should be addressed with the principle of ‘regional responsibility’” as agreed within the 3+3 format that brings together Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. “We call on external players to respect these agreements, and the authorities in Yerevan, in formulating their foreign policy, to take into account the concerns of neighboring states,” the statement concluded.

Turkey’s MFA issued a statement saying the meeting, which does not include Azerbaijan, “will pave the way for the South Caucasus to become an area of geopolitical confrontation, rather than serving peace.” It added that “third parties, especially actors from outside the region,” should remain neutral and that the meeting undermines the “neutral approach that should be the basis for the solution of the complex problems of the region.”

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