Smoke Signals or Political Will: Armenia’s EU Membership Bill

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On March 26, Armenia’s parliament passed a bill formally declaring the country’s intent to begin the process of joining the European Union. The measure was approved exclusively by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party, while opposition factions led by former presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan either voted against it or abstained. Parliament speaker Alen Simonyan and Aram Sargsyan, leader of the pro-Western Republic Party, both hailed it as historic.

The law states that Armenia, “aiming to develop democratic institutions, improve the well-being of society, strengthen the country’s security, resilience, and the rule of law, announces the launch of the process for Armenia to join the European Union.” Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan told parliament that while the bill signals Armenia’s political will, it does not constitute a formal application for EU membership. “Nevertheless, it conveys the aspiration of Armenian citizens who wish to elevate the partnership with the EU to a new level and is in line with a balanced foreign policy,” he stated.

Background

Armenia has maintained close ties with the EU under successive administrations. It was set to sign an association agreement in 2013, but made a last-minute U-turn to join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union instead. A Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was signed in 2017, which entered into force in 2021.

But ties took a sharp upward turn amid a rift in Armenia-Russia relations following the Azerbaijani incursion of Armenia in September 2022 and the September 2023 Azerbaijani takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh). Pashinyan told the European Parliament in October 2023 that Armenia “is ready to be closer to the European Union, as much as the EU considers it possible.” This was followed by Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan’s statement that the people of Armenia “have European aspirations” after the EU granted candidate status to Georgia in November 2023.

In a March 2024 interview, Mirzoyan appeared to hint for the first time at the possibility of pursuing EU membership. This was followed by a European Parliament resolution of March 13, which said that “should Armenia be interested in applying for candidate status and continuing on its path of sustained reforms consolidating its democracy, this could set the stage for a transformative phase in EU-Armenia relations.” Pashinyan welcomed the resolution and told cabinet members the next day that it “should become a subject of public discussion in Armenia” and called on “non-governmental organizations, different layers of society, [and] citizens” to express their attitude towards the message from the European Parliament.

A highlight of Armenia-EU ties last year was the April 5 trilateral meeting in Brussels of Prime Minister Pashinyan, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and then-U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a show of support for Armenia, where they “reaffirm[ed] support for Armenia’s sovereignty, democracy, territorial integrity, and socio-economic resilience.” The second key moment was the pair of decisions adopted by the European Council on July 22. The first allocated €10 million assistance to Armenia’s Armed Forces under the European Peace Facility (EPF) to enhance its logistical capacities, while the second greenlighted the launch of visa liberalization dialogue with Armenia. Following the decisions, EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell remarked that they were “long awaited by Armenia” and will “strengthen our partnership with Armenia.”

Timeline

In September 2024, a coalition of pro-European parties and activists launched a civil initiative to propose a bill to parliament, a process that, under the Armenian Constitution, requires the collection of 50,000 signatures. The initiative, called Eurovote, included the Republic Party led by former Prime Minister Aram Sargsyan, the For the Republic Party led by Arman Babajanyan, the European Party led by Tigran Khzmalyan, and others who are mostly sympathetic to Pashinyan.

They submitted an application to Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission (CEC) on September 5 and named former Justice Minister Artak Zeynalyan, an ally of Aram Sargsyan, as their authorized representative to the Commission. The CEC approved the application on September 11 and set a 60 day period between September 16 to November 14 as the deadline for collecting signatures, which were submitted ahead of the deadline on November 7. The CEC validated 52,351 signatures on December 10, paving the way to enter parliament.

Zeynalyan submitted the bill to parliament on December 12 and received government endorsement on January 9, 2025 at a cabinet meeting. During that meeting, Foreign Minister Mirzoyan pointed to EU’s political support for Armenia’s democracy, the EU observer mission in Armenia (EUMA), and efforts to strengthen Armenia’s economic resilience as reasons for the official endorsement. Pashinyan said his government does not object to its adoption by parliament and stressed that actual membership requires a referendum. He also called for talks with the EU on a roadmap for closer ties and added that until then, Armenia has no other action to take. He framed it as part of the “balancing and balanced foreign policy” pursued by his government.

The Armenian parliament’s Standing Committee on European Integration approved the bill on January 24 and the parliament, where Pashinyan’s party holds a majority, passed it in the first reading on February 12. Arman Yeghoyan, chair of the  Committee, said days later that the bill does not entail holding a referendum as it constitutes a political decision. Debates were initially postponed, but the standing committee gave its final go-ahead on March 24.

Domestic Support and Opposition

A poll conducted by International Republican Institute (IRI) from September 13 to 25, coinciding with the civic initiative, showed that a majority of respondents, at 58%, said they would vote for a potential referendum on Armenia’s prospective EU membership, with only 13% saying they would oppose it. Among those who would vote to join the EU, 40% cited security and stability as the main benefit, followed by strengthening of the economy (11%) and developing the country (11%). Among those who opposed a potential EU membership, 22% said it would harm Armenian family norms, while 21% believe it is not reliable and will not support Armenia. Another 12% said it would anger Russia and increase security threats from Russia.

Armenia’s parliamentary opposition, the Armenia and I Have Honor blocs, have opposed the bill. Gegham Manukyan, a leading ARF member, part of the Kocharyan-led Armenia Alliance, criticized the bill as a “mockery of law”, while another ARF member Artsvik Minasyan argued that to get closer to to the EU, Armenia must fulfill its obligations undertaken by the CEPA instead of making “loud proclamations.” Armen Gevorgyan, a senior official under both Kocharyan and Sargsyan, criticized the entire process in a February article. He warned that it will become a tool at the hands of Baku and Moscow, allowing the latter, in particular, “to speak to Armenia in a language of permanent demands.” He argued that accession talks can last years and decades, insisting that “instead of a distant and difficult-to-implement EU membership perspective, it is necessary to offer a pragmatic program of deepening relations with the EU (without membership) that will be mutually beneficial, practical, and have a tangible result for Armenian citizens.”

Edmon Marukyan, a former ally of Pashinyan, has also criticized the process and demanded a referendum. “This process is not about placing the responsibility of joining the EU on 50,000 citizens, but about placing the responsibility for a reckless adventure fraught with serious consequences, because both in the EU and in our government, everyone knows that this process is not absolutely about Euro-integration,” he said in a social media post.

International Reactions

A statement by European Parliament members Nils Ušakovs, chair of the delegation for relations with the South Caucasus, and Miriam Lexmann, the standing rapporteur on Armenia, said the law, proposed by a citizens’ initiative, welcomed it “as another clear expression of Armenia’s steadfast commitment to our shared values and the country’s democratic path.” They encouraged the European Commission, the High Representative/Vice-President and the European Council to “actively support Armenia’s desire for increased cooperation with the EU in all dimensions and its European aspirations.”

The initial approval by the Armenian parliament in February was welcomed by the European Greens, a relatively small group in the European Parliament, and Michael Roth, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag. After the government endorsement of the bill, EU Ambassador Vassilis Maragos was asked whether the EU is waiting for Armenia in its club. He responded that the EU is firmly committed to deepening its relations with Armenia.

Former French Foreign Minister and European Parliament Member Nathalie Loiseau commented: “Yet another former Soviet republic that no longer wants Moscow’s tyranny and for whom freedom rhymes with Europe.”

During a March 31 visit to Yerevan, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said his country has “great respect” for Armenia’s bold step and noted that “there’s a lot of work to be done aimed at reforms.” Steinmeier stated that he had the “impression that there is a realistic understanding in Armenia that the path towards the EU is a long one.” In his turn, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan pointed to Armenia’s Constitution as an ideological basis for the decision as it “stipulates that Armenia strives for a free, democratic country, where the power belongs to the people.”

In January, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called Armenia’s potential accession to the EU Yerevan’s sovereign right, but insisted that its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is beneficial for Armenia. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk was more direct. He said Moscow considers the discussion on joining the EU the beginning of Armenia’s exit from the EAEU. “The EAEU and the EU are incompatible,” he warned. “It is becoming increasingly clear that membership in the EAEU is a privilege, and given the economic and social problems faced by the EU, joining the EU could be compared to buying a ticket for the Titanic.” After the recent, final parliament approval, Overchuk stated that Armenia will need to make a choice between the EAEU and the EU, “because it will definitely not be possible to sit on two chairs at the same time.” He also warned that if it chooses the EU, it will “affect the living standards of people in Armenia.”

While the law marks a symbolic move toward EU integration, its necessity remains debatable. Was such a formal declaration needed when Yerevan and Brussels were already deepening ties? Pashinyan stressed that a clear roadmap is essential before any further steps can be taken. Even as visa liberalization talks progress and modest security aid has been approved for Armenia’s Armed Forces, the road ahead remains uncertain. Factors such as Georgia’s EU candidacy, the ongoing Ukraine conflict, shifting European postures, Yerevan’s ambivalent ties with Moscow, a possible opening of the border with Turkey, and domestic political developments will all play a crucial role in shaping Armenia’s geopolitical course.

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