Is Aliyev genuinely pursuing peace, or is he using negotiations to cement his geopolitical gains? Nerses Kopalyan, author of the EVN Security Report series dissects Azerbaijan’s approach to the peace talks and explores the deeper reasons why Aliyev will not sign a peace deal with Armenia.
Azerbaijan’s delay in committing to a peace agreement suggests a strategy of coercion to extract unilateral concessions and weaken Armenia’s sovereignty. The international community must go beyond praise and apply real pressure to ensure a fair, enforceable peace to stop the cycle of aggression.
Aliyev’s unilateral declaration of a draft peace agreement was a calculated gamble to capture U.S. attention rather than a genuine step toward peace with Armenia. This strategy backfired, exposing Azerbaijan’s bad faith engagement, with Washington preferring the narrative of its strategic partner Armenia.
In EVN Report’s news roundup for the week of March 21: Baku resumes and intensifies claims of ceasefire violations. Since March 16, Armenia’s Defense Ministry has denied 13 such accusations; the Margara Crossing on the Armenia-Turkey border is temporarily open to facilitate the transport of humanitarian aid from Armenia to Syria; Armenia appoints a military attaché to the UN.
Baku and Yerevan have declared their negotiations over, a moment that should, in theory, mark a diplomatic milestone. Yet the actual signing and implementation of a peace agreement remains elusive, if not outright uncertain. With the process stalled in an ambiguous interim phase, this new reality necessitates a careful assessment of the risks and uncertainties defining this transitional period.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized peace negotiations, with Yerevan accepting Baku’s proposals on the withdrawal of third-party forces on the border and all international legal claims. However, Baku insists Armenia amend its constitution to remove alleged territorial claims as a prerequisite to signing a peace treaty.
Azerbaijan employs coercive tactics to pressure Armenia into political concessions. Davit Petrosyan examines Aliyev's strategy, Armenia's vulnerabilities, and the risks of dropping legal claims. He argues that, beyond military strengthening, Armenia must develop its own coercive strategy targeting Aliyev’s key fears and vulnerabilities, effectively deterring Azerbaijan.
In EVN Report’s news roundup for the week of October 25: Leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet on the sidelines of the BRIC summit; Armenia and Azerbaijan ratify regulations governing joint border commissions; a senior U.S. official delivers a letter from President Joe Biden to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and more.
The latest obstacle to a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is Baku’s demand that Armenia amend its Constitution, specifically the preamble referencing the Declaration of Independence. Zaven Sargsian argues that Azerbaijan’s argument is deeply flawed.
In EVN Report’s news roundup for the week of July 12: Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet in Washington DC; USAID Administrator Samantha Power makes second visit to Armenia within a year; Armenia’s Anti-corruption Court charges several army officers and doctors with corruption and taking bribes and more.
EVN Report’s mission is to empower Armenia, inspire the diaspora and inform the world through sound, credible and fact-based reporting and commentary. Our goal is to increase public trust in the media. EVN Report is the media arm of EVN News Foundation registered in the Republic of Armenia in 2017.
