The EU civilian monitoring mission launched today is expected to be a deterrent to potential new Azerbaijani offensives through its political leverage and physical presence. Armenia must, however, restore its security and defense sector to defend its territory and people.
For more than a month, Artsakh has been cut off from the rest of the world by the joint will of Azerbaijan and Russia as the international community watches silently because Artsakh is the blind spot of the peace negotiations, writes Gaidz Minassian.
Over the past year, Artsakh faced periods of heightened tensions as Baku continued its policy of harassment and terror including a blockade that has cut off the 120,000 residents of Artsakh from Armenia and the rest of the world.
Baku does not want an equitable peace, the West struggles to advance the negotiations, and Moscow prefers freezing the process to create a new status quo it can control. Yerevan will need to enhance its bargaining abilities by engaging in asymmetrical aggressive bargaining.
The interplay between two conflicts, one in Eastern Europe, the other in the Caucasus provides a global dimension to the issues they contain. Beyond the common space-time matrix, what can we learn from what lies at the nexus of these two conflicts?
After almost three decades of remaining on the sidelines of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict negotiation process, the EU has now stepped in, positioning itself as a mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conciliation process.
Despite leading the region in many progressive metrics, the past few years have reinforced how peace isn’t something Armenia can take for granted: it must cultivate optimal conditions for innovation because of external threats, and that will take conscious architecting.
Two years ago, on September 27, Armenians in Artsakh and Armenia woke up to news of war; today, on September 27, Armenians in Armenia and Artsakh will go to bed anticipating a new war.
On September 15-16, at France’s request, the UN Security Council dealt with the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict for the first time since 1994. As uncertainty reigns, all options are on the table, even the darkest—that of a renewed aggression by Baku.
Azerbaijan has made an enormous strategic mistake, Russia has allowed for a sizable power vacuum in the region, and the United States has determined to capitalize on these developments, undertaking a policy pivot in the South Caucasus.
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