The region’s security arrangement remains in flux as Azerbaijan amplified its rhetorical aggression and engaged in expansive troop movements and build-up in border areas. Greater Western involvement has deepened the alliance between Azerbaijan and Russia. While Moscow and Baku have established a united front against the West’s presence in the region, Armenia has proceeded to reconfigure its strategic interests, advancing its democracy narrative, while aligning its preferences to the resolution of the conflict with the Western-led stabilization efforts.

Armenia's precarious security situation is compounded by its underdeveloped institutions and infirm infrastructure. For the February security briefing, Nerses Kopalyan writes that in this context, the entirety of Armenia’s social and governmental approach must revolve around building resilience.

Taking into consideration the security context in January and guided by a strategy of deterrence-by-denial, Armenia must develop a “porcupine doctrine” to deter Azerbaijan’s objectives and the destabilizing designs of the Aliyev regime.

The security context in December showed that regardless of negotiations or the general contours of a potential peace treaty, actual and sustainable peace with the Aliyev Government will remain elusive. This month’s security report introduces the concept of ontological security.

Baku does not want an equitable peace, the West struggles to advance the negotiations, and Moscow prefers freezing the process to create a new status quo it can control. Yerevan will need to enhance its bargaining abilities by engaging in asymmetrical aggressive bargaining.

The security context for the month of November demonstrates observable decline for Armenia as Azerbaijan intensified and amplified its hybrid warfare activities, attempting to neutralize Armenia’s growing attempts at the diplomatization of its deterrence capabilities.

The security context for the month of October can be better understood as the changing configuration between Armenia’s implementation of its diplomatization-of-security doctrine against Azerbaijan’s multi-tiered hybrid warfare doctrine.

Armenia’s security situation remains precarious, as Azerbaijan has exponentially increased its use of interstate conflict mechanisms, undertaking both large-scale invasions as well as incrementally utilizing hybrid warfare to justify violations of the ceasefire.

Azerbaijan has made an enormous strategic mistake, Russia has allowed for a sizable power vacuum in the region, and the United States has determined to capitalize on these developments, undertaking a policy pivot in the South Caucasus.