In order for Armenia to mitigate, anticipate, and deter Azerbaijan's threats and potential attacks, it must understand and qualify the mechanisms that define the Aliyev regime’s propensity for bellicosity, and gauge its “coercive credibility”.
In Armenia, establishing a Western pivot was crucial to achieve an independent foreign policy and enhance security capabilities, paving the way for diversification in foreign and security relations. This process involves pivoting first, diversifying, and only then adopting hedging strategies.
The latest survey by the International Republican Institute, conducted in December 2023, reveals the consolidation of public distrust in Russia, strong support for the Government’s pivot toward the West, and a growing sophistication in the Armenian public’s understanding of its complex security concerns.
As Armenia proceeds to diversify its access to armaments and advanced weapons systems, the development of a comprehensive, well-structured, and expert-driven procurement program will strengthen Armenia’s initiatives and support the strengthening and democratization of its defense sector.
Noting the instrumentalization of warfare as the dominant and preferred strategic tool of the Aliyev regime, a rationalist explanation of war is introduced in this month's security briefing to address the causal mechanisms shaping Aliyev’s incentives for being conflict-prone.
An institutional theory of security is necessary for Armenia so that it escapes institutional underdevelopment and the culture of inchoate security thinking inherited from the Soviet legacy, writes Nerses Kopalyan for the December 2023 security report.
Regional dynamics in November demonstrated acute developments that are on track to produce unanticipated realignments, altering Armenia’s security environment and enhancing its security and foreign policy diversification.
Armenia’s Western pivot is neither ideational nor conceptually geopolitical, it’s a matter of survival. The objective of the Western pivot is not about replacing one dependency structure with another, but rather, rupturing the entire logic of dependency and establishing sustainable security independence.
The status quo established by the Russo-Azerbaijani tandem in Nagorno-Karabakh completely broke down after Baku launched a massive invasion of Artsakh while coordinating operations with Russian forces. This culminated in the collapse of the Artsakh Republic. Nerses Kopalyan presents an in-depth analysis of developments.
While the Yerevan elections displayed a healthy growth in pluralism, with five political parties entering the Council of Elders, it also introduced the concerns of low turnout and the specter that is haunting most democratic systems: voter apathy. At the same time, the political landscape has undergone a shift, for the period of one party being the darling of the electorate is over, as is the era of fearing the anti-Velvet forces as a threat to the electoral field.
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