Tag: baku

In EVN Report’s news roundup for the week of June 16, 2023: Azerbaijani forces cross Hakari Bridge in an attempt to hoist their flag; Baku bans all humanitarian passenger and cargo transport through the Lachin Corridor; two Indian nationals injured following Azerbaijani attack on a metallurgical plant in Armenia’s Ararat region.

Iran will never accept any Azerbaijani military or political control of southern Armenia. While Tehran is pursuing a policy of strategic patience vis-à-vis Azerbaijan, it does have red lines that, if crossed, would likely produce a swift reaction.

The EU monitoring mission can provide a useful tool for accountability and transparency, but it is not a substitute for hard security. Armenia needs to address its own security concerns and focus on creating a stable and secure environment for its citizens.

The security context in December showed that regardless of negotiations or the general contours of a potential peace treaty, actual and sustainable peace with the Aliyev Government will remain elusive. This month’s security report introduces the concept of ontological security.

Baku does not want an equitable peace, the West struggles to advance the negotiations, and Moscow prefers freezing the process to create a new status quo it can control. Yerevan will need to enhance its bargaining abilities by engaging in asymmetrical aggressive bargaining.

Azerbaijan has made an enormous strategic mistake, Russia has allowed for a sizable power vacuum in the region, and the United States has determined to capitalize on these developments, undertaking a policy pivot in the South Caucasus.

Following Azerbaijan’s latest attack, this time against Armenia proper, international actors are calling on both sides to de-escalate the situation. Bothsidism in this context is ridiculous, tiresome, and shameful. Not naming the aggressor or who is benefiting from violence is not a neutral act. It is not telling the truth.

Armenia hasn’t participated in any multilateral connectivity initiatives in the South Caucasus since independence, primarily due to the war with Azerbaijan. Since the 2020 Artsakh War, new projects are taking shape—again without Armenia’s participation.

If the EU is honest in its commitment to make peace possible in the South Caucasus, then it needs to address Baku’s ongoing anti-Armenian rhetoric and policy of creating permanent tensions on the borders to pressure Armenia for further concessions.